The Texas Longhorns are deep in the middle of summer workouts. The Horns are sweating it out in the Texas heat to get themselves mentally and physically ready for the 2025 football season.
The kickoff to the new season will be here before you know it. In fact, we’re just over two weeks away from the SEC Media Days in Atlanta (July 14th-17th).
The Media Days is a time that the coaches and players in the conference get in front of the media and tell the world they expect to make it back to Atlanta in December for the SEC Championship game.
Obviously, some of them will be full of crap. There is no way Jeff Lebby, in his heart of hearts, believes he will lead Mississippi State to the SEC title.
But as Texas coach Steve Sarkisian will tell you, in the SEC, even the lowly Bulldogs can beat the best of the conference if they don’t come to play.
“It’s a very physical conference,” Sarkisian told the 3rd & Longhorn podcast this week. “I think the one thing that people underestimate from the outside is how mentally grueling it is to play in this conference. The coaching is incredible. The idea is that you have to get up for every game, and if you don’t, you will get beat.”
Sark said he was proud of how his team was ready to compete each and every week (outside of the first half of the Georgia game in which he said the problem was that his team was TOO prepared, too keyed up).
“We weren’t perfect,” Sarkisian admitted. “We were in some nail biters and games that people probably thought we shouldn’t have been in going into the second half. But I sure would much rather be that than some of the teams that lost some games they probably shouldn’t have lost either. That might have cost a couple teams an opportunity to get into the playoffs, quite frankly.
“But that’s what’s so challenging about the SEC that it’s every single week, you’ve got to be mentally prepared to play as much as you have to be physically prepared to play. And I thought our guys did that.”
Texas came within a whisker of winning the conference title in its first season of competition.
Getting back into the game and winning it will not be easy. While the Horns had the advantage of playing most of its toughest conference games at home last season, the reverse of that will be true this season.
Beyond the opening week road trip to Columbus, Ohio, Texas has conference road games this year at Florida and at Georgia.
“We have new challenges this year that we didn’t have a year ago,” said Sarkisian. “We’re going to be the most traveled team in the SEC this year. We’re going to travel almost 10,000 miles this year where, I think, you know, Georgia, Ole Miss, those guys are traveling like, 1,200 miles.
“So the idea that we’re going to Ohio State, we’re going to Georgia, we’re going to Florida, you could argue three of the top five most hostile environments in the country that we’re going to get to play in. And I say get to and I mean that because this team has got to form its own identity. We’ve been a very good road team now for the past three years or so, and those moments are what are going to help us in December and January. When you get into those environments, having the ability to play in those arenas against those teams and perform well is going to infuse a ton of confidence in this team.”
The road back to Atlanta this year will not be easy, but I’m predicting Texas WILL be back in the SEC Championship game again in 2025.
Without further adieu, here is my predicted order of finish in the SEC this season.
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. LSU
5. Florida
6. South Carolina
7. Ole Miss
8. Oklahoma
9. Auburn
10. Texas A&M
11. Tennessee
12. Missouri
13. Vanderbilt
14. Kentucky
15. Arkansas
16. Mississippi State
1. Texas Longhorns
The Horns have a lot to replace on offense with last year’s starting QB, TE, two WR’s and four OL having moved on. Normally that would be a death knell for any team’s chances of going back to the title game. But most teams, in fact no other team, has Arch Manning stepping in at QB.
But as good as Manning should be this year (and I think he will be better than Ewers last year), Sark probably isn’t REALLY going to lean on Arch to carry this year’s team. This year’s Longhorns will go as far as the defense takes them.
Colin Simmons, Anthony Hill Jr., Malik Muhammad and Michael Taaffe headline what should be once again be the best defense in the conference. What’s really scary for the rest of the league is that the Horns will probably be even better on defense this year than last year.
In fact, spoiler alert, I think it is the defense that will lead the Horns to victory in Columbus in week one. But I’ll have more to say about that at a later date.
The schedule, as previously mentioned, is pretty tough. Texas will spend the entire month of October on the road (including the neutral site game against OU in Dallas). They’ll get a home game against Vanderbilt to start November before having to go back on the road against Georgia. After that, the Horns will bring in a pig and a farmer to DKR to wrap up the season.
No.2 Alabama Crimson Tide
It’s year two for Kalen DeBoer as he tries to make people forget that Nick Saban is no longer the Tide’s head coach. Good luck with all that!
DeBoer does get to bring back offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb who helped lead the attack at the University of Washington and actually moved with DeBoer to Tuscaloosa before leaving after about two weeks to take over as OC for the Seattle Seahawks.
Things didn’t work out in the NFL so Grubb is back with his old boss and he’ll have a new QB to lead the charge.
Fourth-year junior Ty Simpson, third-year sophomore Austin Mack and 5-star freshman Keelon Russell are all battling it out to take over as the Crimson’s starter. I went on record this past spring as saying I think Russell will win the job at some point this season. He is just too dynamic of a playmaker to be sitting behind a couple of guys who couldn’t beat out Jalen Milroe.
No matter who is throwing the ball for Bama this year, they’ll have All-Everything Wide Receiver Ryan Williams to throw the ball to and former Iowa transfer portal left tackle Kadyn Proctor to protect his blindside. Parker Brailsford is also one of the best centers in the country. He was a star at Washington and then transferred to Bama when DeBoer took the job.
The Tide return seven starters on defense including edge rusher LT Overton. The former A&M d-lineman started to come on strong late last season and could be finally starting to actualize on the 5-star potential he arrived in College Station with.
It could also be that the entire unit started to figure out how to play fast under defensive coordinator Kane Wommack’s system.
No.3 Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia won’t have the best offensive lines in the SEC, but they’ll be pretty damn good. Georgia won’t have the best defense in the SEC, but they’ll be pretty damn good. Georgia won’t have the best running back in the SEC in sophomore Nate Frazier, but he’ll be pretty damn good.
Kirby Smart will try to win with defense and a strong running game. He’s done it before.
The thing that will keep Georgia from making it to Atlanta for the SEC conference championship game is they’re actually planning to roll with Gunnar Stockton at quarterback.
No.4 LSU Tigers
LSU’s season could come down to this simple equation: Garrett Nussmeier lives up to expectations = winning big.
Nussmeier threw for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns last year. If he takes another step forward this year the Tigers should be in line for a big season and Nussmeier could find himself going high in the NFL Draft next year.
LSU, like Texas, needs to replace four of the five starting offensive linemen from last year. But the Tigers, like the Longhorns, recruit that position very well and have some very talented depth to plug those holes.
They also don’t need to hold off defensive lines for very long … just long enough for Nussmeier to get the ball to Barion Brown or Nic Anderson.
The schedule is not exactly a cake walk with Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, A&M and Bama on the agenda.
No.5 Florida Gators
Florida returns a lot of talent … it’s just a lot of talented players who don’t yet know how to win.
DJ Lagway will compete with Arch Manning for the best young quarterback in the country. The former Willis, Texas product had some brilliant flashes during his freshman season. But he also had some rocky moments. If he continues to develop the way most are expecting, then the Gators could start to learn how to win and win big.
Florida also has a very good offensive line with four starters returning from last year’s unit.
The Gators also have some flat-out studs on the defensive line in defensive ends Tyreak Sapp and Caleb Banks.
All in all, Texas’ trip to the Swamp should be a lot of fun.
No.6 South Carolina Gamecocks
Shane Beamer’s squad was expected to be one of the worst in the SEC last season. But he and quarterback LaNorris Sellers had different ideas.
Sellers is one of the most exciting quarterback talents in all of college football. He is an absolute blast to watch play.
The Gamecocks had a damn good defense last season holding opponents to 18.1 points per game. But they lost five starters to graduation and had to plug those holes through the transfer portal.
One returning starter they don’t need to worry about is sophomore edge rusher Dylan Stewart. Stewart turned in 6.5 sacks as a freshman and flashed the kind of upside that has NFL scouts drooling.
No.7 Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss was on the verge of the playoffs last year but inexplicable losses to Kentucky and Florida derailed their hopes.
Now Lane Kiffin has to go through a pretty extensive rebuild on both sides of the ball. The Rebels return three starters on offense and two on defense.
Jaxson Dart is gone and he’ll be replaced by Austin Simmons. There is a lot of optimism about Simmons from the people in Oxford but he’s still unproven.
“He’s uniquely composed,” Kiffin said at the SEC spring meetings. “But there’s a lot of work to be done.”
Kiffin hit the portal hard to fill out the rest of the roster. How those players will come together and mesh will be a big factor on whether the Rebels can get back towards the top of the standings.
No.8 Oklahoma Sooners
There is a world where this ranking is too low.
You know head coach Brent Venables is going to have a good defense. It all starts up front for the Sooners with Thomas R. Mason, Jayden Jackson, Damonic Williams and Marvin Jones Jr. making up a formidable d-line. Kip Lewis is not quite Danny Stutsman but he’s a damn good linebacker. Peyton and Eli Bowen will lead the secondary.
But the real boost in OU’s fortunes are likely to come on the offensive side of the ball.
Venables has imported offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle from Washington State. Arbuckle comes from the Air Raid coaching tree and he runs a similar style offense. He’ll rely on a pass-heavy scheme with rapid passing concepts and vertical threats.
The straw that stirs Arbuckle’s drink is quarterback John Mateer who came with him from Pullman to Norman.
Mateer passed for 3,130 yards and 29 touchdowns with seven interceptions last season which was good for a 64.6 completion percentage and a 164.1 QB rating. That is impressive enough, but consider he also picked up 826 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Not bad for a 3-star prospect out of Little Elm, Texas.
Mateer’s running ability and Arbuckle’s quick passing scheme should help cover up deficiencies along the offensive line. The Sooners are feeling much better about their offensive line this season … and it can’t honestly be any worse after they gave up after giving up a wretched 50 sacks last season, the worst in the country. But it is hard to imagine the unit is anything more than just a middling (at best) SEC offensive line.
There is some talent in the skill positions with Deion Burks out wide and Jaydn Ott taking over at running back after transferring from Cal.
The biggest potential stumbling block for OU is their schedule. ESPN’s SP+ analytics tabs OU with the toughest schedule in the country. The Sooners will face nine teams currently in the SP+ preseason top 25.
No.9 Auburn Tigers
ust how good is Jackson Arnold? Is he the 5-star that was oozing with potential when he first signed with OU? Or is he the turnover prone QB that was running for his life behind the Sooner offensive line last year? We should get an answer to that question this year.
Auburn has a damn good offensive line which should give Arnold time to find his receivers. And it shouldn’t be too hard to find an open WR with Cam Coleman lining up out wide. Coleman is one of the elite sophomore wide receivers in college football … joining Jeremiah Smith, Ryan Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and Ryan Wingo in what may be the best single class of wide receivers of all time.
No.10 Texas A&M Aggies
One thing head coach Mike Elko has done in College Station (besides sweat – a lot) is give the Aggies an identity.
Texas A&M wants to run the ball and play defense.
A&M has a damn good offensive line to help clear the way for running back Le’Veon Moss who, if he stays healthy, should be one of the best in the SEC. They will be a veritable bowling ball of a team on offense. The one thing that could send that ball into the gutter is quarterback Marcel Reed.
Reed passed for 1,864 yards and rushed for another 543 last season. But he also threw six interceptions and had a QB rating of just 142.1. Aggie fans will tell you they’re excited about Reed and think he can be one of the best QB’s in the conference. That’s Aggie fans for you.
Elko, who made his name as a defensive coordinator, is taking over the play-calling duties after his unit ranked 12th in the conference last year. A&M gave up more rushes of at least 20 yards (19) than any other team in the conference.
Defensive end Cashius Howell lead the team last year in sacks with 4.5. He’s back but A&M brought in two new transfers to beef up the d-line. T.J. Searcy (who played at Florida last year) will man the other d-end spot and Tyler Onyedim comes in from Iowa State to take over at defensive tackle.
Complicating matters for A&M this season is that they have to come to Austin to take on Texas for the last game of the season.
Poor Aggies.
No.11 Tennessee Vols
The Tennessee Volunteers made the College Football Playoffs last season and yet, here they are down at 11th in my conference projections.
The Vols playoff run last season was powered by running back Dylan Sampson and an elite defense that finished only behind Texas in the conference rankings.
Sampson is now gone, as are four of the team’s five starting offensive linemen.
Oh, and they also lost their starting quarterback from last year, Nico Iamaleava. Iamaleava has basically swapped places with Joey Aguilar who was played at Appalachian State last season before transferring to UCLA for the spring. He re-entered the portal after the Bruins brought in Iamaleava and that opened up a spot at Tennessee.
Aguilar passed fore more than 3,000 yards last year for App State, but he also had 14 interceptions and a QB rating of just 132.9.
That is just too much production lost to be able to replicate the year they had last season.
The Tennessee defense should be good again, even if it is not quite to the same level as last year’s team. The Vols return seven starters from last year’s unit and will be led by edge rusher Joshua Josephs and linebacker Arion Carter. The squad is talented and experienced. But that’s probably not enough to overcome what I think will be big deficiencies on offense.
No.12 Missouri Tigers
Twelfth in the conference may be too low for Missouri given the ease (relatively) of their schedule. The Tigers avoid Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Tennessee. They also get their toughest conference matchups at home with Alabama, A&M and South Carolina coming to Columbia.
Head coach Eli Drinkwitz has basically rebuilt his offense through the transfer portal bringing in QB Beau Pribula from Penn State, WR Kevin Coleman Jr. from Jackson State, RB Ahmad Hardy from ULM, LT Johnny Williams IV from West Virginia and RT Keagan Trost from Morgan State.
Penn State did not want to lose Pribula to the portal, but the QB made the decision to leave Happy Valley after Drew Allar decided to return for another season. In limited action last year, Pribula completed nearly 75 percent of his passes for five touchdowns, one interception and a QB rating of 174.8. But his real value to the team last year was when he was brought in as a change of pace QB (similar to how Sark had a special package of plays for Arch Manning). Pribula rushed for 329 yards (5.9 ypc) and six touchdowns.
In short, Pribula is a solid quarterback to build an offense around and Drinkwitz is a good playcaller.
Mizzou brings back seven starters from a defensive unit that ranked 17th nationally in total defense last year. They also added a few pieces which should really make them a strong unit. Linebacker Josiah Trotter was last year’s Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year at West Virginia and former Texas safety Jalen Catalon came to Missouri from UNLV where he had a fantastic season.
No.13 Vanderbilt
Picking any team with Diego Pavia to finish 13th feels like a gamble. But then again, the Commodores finished 12th in the SEC last season.
Pavia had to sue to return for another season of eligibility, but he won and so he’s back to lead Vandy one last time. He also gets tight end Eli Stowers back for another year. Stowers will be playing in the NFL next season, Pavia will not.
There’s not much else to crow about on offense.
On defense, the good news is that Vanderbilt returns eight starters from last year’s team. The bad news is that Vandy’s defense finished 14th in the conference last year.
Head coach Clark Lea was calling plays for the defense last season but he’s giving up those duties this year. New defensive coordinator Steve Gregory, a former safeties coach in the NFL, will be calling the defense for the first time in his career.
No.14 Kentucky Wildcats
Speaking of quarterbacks who don’t ever want to leave college … Zach Calzada will be taking over under center at Kentucky this year.
Calzada is playing in his seventh season of college football after playing at the University of Incarnate Word last year. Prior to UIW, he started his career at Auburn before transferring to Texas A&M where he was unfortunate enough to get be photographed looking like this.
The Wildcats return three starters on offense and four on defense. But then again, maybe that’s not such a bad thing considering the team went 4-8 last season for coach Mark Stoops.
No.15 Arkansas Razorbacks
This is almost surely Sam Pittman’s last season calling the hogs as Arkansas’ head coach.
The piggies offense returns four starters including quarterback Taylen Green and starting left guard Fernando Carmona who was last seen doing this to a defender during Arkansas’ 39-26 win over Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl.
Arkansas was pretty bad on defense last year ranking 13th in the country. They’re replacing just about everyone from that side of the ball as well. Linebacker Brad Spence, who was one of their best players last year, will now line up for Texas when the Horns host Arkansas later this year.
No.16 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Head coach Jeff Lebby is in his second season in charge at Starksville. Lebby, who spent time on the sidelines at OU and is Art Briles’ son-in-law, is a real easy guy to like … if you’re into that kind of thing.
Speaking of Baylor, former Bears quarterback Blake Shapen, who missed the final eight games of last season with a shoulder injury, is back as the signal caller for the Bulldogs. Shapen is not bad, but he’s not exactly good either.
What is good for Mississippi State is running back Davon Booth. The graduate transfer finished with 1,231 all-purpose yards last year.
The real problem in Stark-Vegas is the defense. The Bulldogs were last in the SEC and 125th in the country in total defense last year. The one bright spot on last year’s defense is back again this year. Safety Isaac Smith led the SEC with 127 tackles and will be called upon to do as well or better this year if Mississippi State has any hopes of finishing anywhere other than dead last in the conference.