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Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian earned the benefit of the doubt entering this season. Even though there were plenty of question marks about this team, Sarkisian and his staff spent the offseason radiating confidence that this program wouldn’t skip a beat. And when you’ve led your team to back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances, it’s hard to question a coach’s offseason decisions without being labeled one of the following: negative, hater, pants-pisser, Debbie Downer, or a genuine a-hole.
That’s why everyone just nodded along when Sarkisian said the following at SEC Media Days:
“I do think we have a very hungry football team, one that is talented. I really like our roster. We’ve strung together now three really good recruiting classes of very talented people, but really good people that I think represent the University of Texas the right way. I really feel like we’ve navigated the portal well through three years, and this year was no different. I think we’ve filled needs on our roster where players can have an impact on our team immediately, not just to fill roster spots. But I think this is a championship roster. Now we’ve got to play like a championship team, but I do think it’s a championship roster.”
Sarkisian’s recent success is also why he was given a pass after saying this:
“On the offensive line, we’re replacing four starters,” Sarkisian said. “D.J. Campbell will be the one coming back. But Cole Hudson has played a ton of football for us. We found out a lot about Trevor Goosby last year. He played in some big-time games against some big-time fronts, and we’re excited about him. But the beauty of when you have that group the way that we had it for the last few years, we had a chance to develop offensive linemen, and that’s one thing that you really love to do is develop those players throughout their time and not throw them into the fire. So we’re really excited about that group and what they can do. Now, their continuity, the quicker they can gel and grow together, is going to be critical.”
That’s where the trust came from – and why so many people believed Texas would pick up right where it left off. However, five games into the season, “the benefit of the doubt” has been replaced by doubt itself. And whatever you think about this team after a 3-2 start, Longhorn fans, here’s a warning.
Buckle up, because it might get worse.
This Longhorn offense isn’t just worse than anyone around the program imagined — it’s worse than the people who built this roster ever anticipated. The offensive line is arguably the weakest unit Sarkisian and Kyle Flood have ever put on the field. The run game is non-existent. If there’s a game-changing receiver on this roster, he must be hiding on the bench. The constant penalties reflect a lack of discipline.
Sacks allowed: Tied for 9th in the SEC
Total offense: 9th in the SEC
Rushing offense: 9th in the SEC
Passing offense: 10th in the SEC
Red Zone conversions: 15th in the SEC
Third-down conversions: 15th in the SEC
Long scrimmage plays: 11th in the SEC
Texas is averaging 8.8 penalties a game: Tied for 14th in the SEC
And honestly, I can’t bring myself to say anything critical of Arch Manning after the poor guy fought his *** off while getting punished by Florida’s front four on Saturday. (He won’t make it through the season if this offensive line keeps playing like that.)
(Photo via Getty Images)
Longhorn fans better hope that the defensive performance in Gainesville was an anomaly, because if that was a preview of what’s ahead, this could turn into the most disappointing season since 2019 – the year after Sam Ehlinger famously declared, “We’re back!” in the Sugar Bowl.
“We’re a one-loss team in the SEC, and there’s a lot of football left to be played,” Sarkisian said after the loss against Florida. “We’ve got seven conference games to be played. I’m not going to sit here and give us the poor mes and the woe-is-us. We’ll get back. We’ll get ready to go. Obviously, we’ve got a big, pivotal game next week against a rival opponent in Oklahoma — very good football team.
“We need to get ourselves ready to play and focus on next week. One of the mistakes we can make is to look big picture. We need to focus on this week and put our best foot forward to get ready to play against a good football team.”
Texas was not prepared to play against a bad Florida team. (The Gators were defeated by USF a few weeks ago, and Billy Napier was four quarters away from potentially losing his job this weekend.)
Texas will not magically improve against good opponents.
Here is the reality.
We are nearly halfway through the season, and it is wishful thinking to believe this team will drastically improve. There will be moments that serve as confirmation bias for those who do not want to accept reality. However, this offense is not good enough for Texas to achieve its preseason goals.
Heck, special teams are nothing to write home about, but Jeff Banks’ group is getting a pass because the offense is playing so poorly.
10-2?
That is not realistic.
9-3?
That is the best-case scenario.
8-4?
That is probably a safe bet.
7-5 or below?
Welcome back to “We just want to get our seniors to a bowl game.”
The most unfortunate part about the direction this team is trending is that it was avoidable.
Texas could have addressed all of its needs in the transfer portal, but the staff passed on players they believed wanted too much money. Former USC guard Emmanuel Pregnon considered signing with Texas, but his asking price was viewed as too high, and the staff believed, “We’re good.”
Well, the guard position is the weakest on this year’s team.
C.J. Baxter has struggled with injuries throughout his tenure at Texas, while the run game was not dynamic last season. Once again: “We’re good.”
Arch Manning is currently the team’s leading rusher (43 carries for 160 yards and 5 TDs).
Texas believed it was important to have experienced receivers entering the 2024 season. That was the motivation for signing Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond, and Silas Bolden. Texas abandoned that aggressive transfer portal approach and only signed one transfer receiver before this season (Stanford’s Emmett Mosley V). The belief was they had enough playmakers on the roster. Once again: “We’re good.”
Only one receiver has a game with over 100 yards this season (Parker Livingstone’s 128 against San Jose State).
Texas plays Oklahoma in a few days. Oklahoma’s defense has to be smiling after watching that Texas film on Sunday.
Kentucky. Mississippi State. Vanderbilt.
Texas is one loss away from being out of playoff contention — and two more away from disaster.
Do you even want to imagine this Texas team against Georgia or Texas A&M right now?
“I think that this is where you find out about the culture that you have,” Sarkisian said. “That’s what we just talked about as a team. We got to get tighter than we’ve ever been, you know, and we’re gonna have to quiet the noise, because there’ll be plenty of noise coming out of this game. We need to get back to work, and we need to play our brand, our style of football that we’re capable of playing. We just didn’t do it tonight. That’s a good team. We knew it was going to be a good team coming in. We knew it’d be a tough environment. We knew we needed to play well, and we didn’t play good enough.
“But we’ll hunker down. We’ve done it before. We know how to do it. But it’s going to take everybody staying really well connected, and we’ve got to be really tight. We’ve got to march forward. And we’ve done it before. We’ll do it again.”
Buckle up, because it might get worse.
