With the first set of playoff rankings scheduled to be released in less than 48 hours, it feels like painting an early November CFB Playoffs picture for everyone with regard to the Texas Longhorns’ outlook is needed.
Here. We. Go.
Basically in (5)
Remaining Games: at Purdue, vs. UCLA, vs. Rutgers and at Michigan
Even a loss in Ann Arbor will only impact the seeding position for the Buckeyes. There’s work to do to secure a top 4 seed, but it’s hard to close your eyes and imagine that this team could do enough to get left out of the Tournament.
2. Indiana (9-0)
Remaining Games: at Penn State, vs. Wisconsin and at Purdue
Not even a loss in one of the final three games and a loss in the Big Ten title game would knock the Hoosiers out of the 12-team playoff.
3. The Big 12 Champion
4. The ACC Champion
5. American Conference Champion
One Foot in the Door (4)
1. Texas A&M (8-0)
Remaining Games: at Missouri, vs. South Carolina, vs. Samford and at Texas
A win over Missouri puts them in, no matter what happens in Austin, barring a disaster at home in games they should comfortably win. Two losses in their last four games could leave them in a precarious position.
2. Alabama (7-1)
Remaining Games: vs. LSU, vs. Oklahoma, vs. Eastern Illinois and at Auburn
If they handle their business at home in the next couple of weeks, they should be fine.
3. Oregon (7-1)
Remaining Games: at Iowa, vs. Minnesota, vs. USC and at Washington
The Ducks aren’t a favorite to land in the Big 10 Championship game and could probably make the Top 12 with a loss in the final four games of the season.
4. Ole Miss (8-1)
Remaining Games: vs. The Citadel, vs. Florida and at Miss State
Honestly, they might be in the “Basically In” group of teams and I’m slotting them incorrectly. It will probably take losses in two of the final three games in order for the Rebels to be left out.
Sitting Pretty Good, But There’s Work To Do (3)
1. Georgia (7-1)
Remaining Games: at Miss State, vs. Texas, Vs. Charlotte and vs. Georgia Tech
It’s hard for me to believe that the Dawgs could play themselves into being on the bubble, but there’s probably a better chance of the Dawgs playing in the SEC title game than there is that they’ll be sitting with three losses in December and NOT in the SEC title game.
2. Texas Tech (9-1)
Tech’s resume isn’t loaded but it beat Utah by 24 and every Big 12 win has been by 3+ scores thus far. A win this weekend vs. BYU might have Tech with one foot in the door in the CFB playoffs because it’s hard to think the committee will punish Texas Tech if they lose in the Big 12 title game.
3. BYU (8-0)
Remaining Games: at Texas Tech, vs. TCU, at Cincinnati and vs. UCF
A win over Texas Tech this weekend would likely put the Cougars in a different tier than this one, but with road games in Lubbock and Cincinnati, it’s hard to look at this team through the current lens of undefeated and the favorite in the Big 12. There’s a much greater chance that BYU’s pathway to winning a spot in the Tournament is to win the conference. 11-1 would probably be tough to ignore. 10-2 translates to possible trouble.
ACC Fools Gold (3)
1. Georgia Tech (8-1)
Remaining Games: at Boston College, vs. Pitt and vs. Georgia
The loss to NC State likely means that an at-large bid is going to be tough to swing unless they beat UGA at the end of the season. As things currently stand, the Yellow Jackets don’t have a single credible win.
2. Virginia (8-1)
Remaining Games: vs. Wake Forest, at Duke and vs. Virginia Tech
The Cavs are going to be an interesting test case for the committee because this team isn’t impressive on paper at all. How much respect is the ACC actually going to get? It feels like the committee might reward not losing again more than they’ll reward playing a demanding schedule.
3. Louisville (7-1)
Remaining Games: vs. California, vs. Clemson, at SMU and vs. Kentucky
The loss to the Cavs means that they are boxed out in the conversation of at-large teams as long as the Cavs have only one loss. The Cardinals probably need to root for the Cavs to win out and then hope that its own winning out would leave the committee leaving out a one-loss team, which it hasn’t done yet.
A Pile of Two-Loss Teams (8 teams)
1. Notre Dame (6-2)
Remaining Games: vs. Navy, at Pittsburgh, vs. Syracuse and at Stanford
Of all the two-loss teams, the clearest pathway for a spot in the 12-team playoff is the Irish’s four-game end to the season. Assuming they win out, they are almost certainly in, even if there’s barely a credible win on the resume. It’s Notre Dame.
2. Texas (7-2)
Remaining Games: at Georgia, vs. Arkansas and vs. Texas A&M
The Longhorns are in if they run the table … no questions asked. Few resumes would look better than one with wins over four top-10 teams at the time games were played. The real question is what kind of respect would a 9-3 Texas team receive with wins over three top-10 teams and one of its losses being on the road at Ohio State? Punish the Longhorns at 9-3 to reward an ACC/Big 12 team with two losses (and few impressive wins on the resume) will send a message to every Power 4 team in the country … never schedule tough.
3. Oklahoma (7-2)
Remaining Games: at Alabama, vs. Missouri and vs. LSU
OU has two problems … Texas and that pesky game at Alabama. Still, there’s wiggle room with three weeks to go after the win in Knoxville.
4. Miami (6-2)
Remaining Games: vs. Syracuse, vs. NC State, at Virginia Tech and at Pittsburgh
This is a two-loss team that has lost two of its last three games and is looking like it will be sitting on the outside looking in when the ACC Championship rolls around … that’s even if it can avoid losing one of its last four games. The Canes will need a lot of help.
Remaining Games: vs. Auburn, vs. Kentucky, and at Tennessee
More Two-Loss Teams…
5. Vanderbilt (7-2)
The Commodores are going to need a lot to go right for them in the final month of the season, just to angle for position with teams that have the same number of losses. The game in Knoxville looks incredibly ominous.
6. Missouri (6-2)
Remaining Games: vs. Texas A&M, vs. Mississippi State and at Oklahoma
Boxed out by Vanderbilt on the two-loss line of teams as things currently stand, winning out will land Missouri in the CFB playoffs. A single loss probably leaves them in a very difficult position, even if a three-loss team can sneak in.
7. Michigan (7-2)
Remaining Games: at Northwestern, at Maryland and vs. Ohio State
Win the final three games and the Wolverines will have a decent chance. Lose a third and they are done.
8. Utah (7-2)
Remaining Games: at Baylor, vs. Kansas State and at Kansas
I can’t really make a strong case for the Utes other than they could finish 10-2 with wins in seven of their final eight games. That shouldn’t be enough, but it might be enough to win battles against a few 9-3 teams … maybe. Can’t leave them out.
9. USC (6-2)
Remaining Games: vs. Northwestern, vs. Iowa, at Oregon and vs. UCLA
That game in Eugene feels like a season-killer, but if they can win that one and handle the other three, they’ll be in the discussion, but they’ll probably need Notre Dame to stumble.
Things Texas Needs to Root For If It Loses a Third Game (or even if it doesn’t)
1. Texas Tech beats BYU on Saturday (or BYU beats Tech) and then beats them again in the Big 12 Championship game. That would make the two-time loser as an at-large team very difficult to justify. If those two teams play each other twice and split the results, both will likely get in. Texas needs as many open spots as possible.
2. Chaos in the ACC. An ACC team is going to get in. The Longhorns don’t need Virginia or Georgia Tech or Louisville hanging around until the end, making the committee play the pretend game with those teams’ sketchy resumes.
3. Missouri beating Texas A&M would potentially mean that the Aggies would need to beat Texas in Austin to get in the playoffs, as opposed to having two feet in if they win the next three games leading into the big rivalry game. That could leave all of the current two-loss teams playing for two spots instead of one.
4. Notre Dame loses. As unlikely as it seems with its remaining schedule, the Irish have won six straight games and the committee will always sneak them in if they can. A Texas two-loss team gets in ahead of a two-loss Irish squad, but cutting them down a peg couldn’t hurt.
Final Thoughts
Playing Ohio State was stupid. The Longhorns would be sitting next to Ole Miss in the “one foot in the door” if they were currently 8-1 with a single loss to Florida on their resume.
The risk vs. reward of that game feels so extreme with so many teams that didn’t dare play anyone with a pulse in non-conference sitting in better perches than the Longhorns because they simply have fewer losses.
Although the committee will say that playing tough non-conference shouldn’t hurt teams, it does. Until there are playoff decisions that go for the better teams instead of the teams with the fewest losses, playing a team like the Buckeyes is reckless. It’s a strategy error in a strategy game of extremely slim margins.
Barring winning out, Texas will likely learn this lesson the hard way, while the committee lies to their face that the risk wasn’t overly costly.
