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It must have felt good to finally catch your breath this weekend after riding the Texas Longhorns roller coaster all season. The thrilling highs — top-10 wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt — were better than anything Six Flags could dream up. Then came the unexpected twists: close calls against Kentucky and Mississippi State that had fans gripping the safety bar. Losing to Ohio State was understandable. The fall against Florida? That one left your stomach in your throat.
This weekend gave Longhorn Nation a rare break — and a chance to hate-watch the rest of the SEC in peace. You saw Georgia dominate Mississippi State the way most Texas fans expected the Longhorns to. You watched Texas A&M get a win over Missouri. Alabama kept rolling. And little brother, Texas Tech, even managed to knock off BYU. It was one of those rare Saturdays when you didn’t have a horse in the race and could enjoy football — for those clinging to YouTube TV, we have to make a decision soon.
But now it’s time to buckle up again. The final three games of the regular season are here: at Georgia, then home against Arkansas and Texas A&M. If Texas runs the table, the Longhorns will punch their ticket to the SEC Championship Game and make a strong case for the College Football Playoff. A loss to Georgia or Texas A&M would put that dream in jeopardy. Losses to both? Season over. And let’s not even talk about dropping one to Arkansas.
Now, let’s get to the midseason predictions.
Photo via University of Texas
Everyone on our staff made preseason predictions. One person thought Texas would win a national championship — here’s a hint: his name rhymes with Geoff Ketchum. Everyone else believed Texas was at least a 10-win team, with the potential to win it all (I predicted 11-1, but was not convinced Texas would win a natty).
We are throwing out those preseason predictions and focusing on the final three games of the regular season. It does not matter what anyone believed in August. It’s all about the final three Saturdays in November.
Here is what some of the Mods are thinking:
Cody Carpentier
I thought about this one for a while — it really came down to 2–1 versus 3–0. I mentioned on Orangebloods Live this week that my early lean for the Georgia game is Texas by three or four. As long as Texas stays healthy on the backend, I believe they can limit the explosive plays against Arkansas and Texas A&M to finish the regular season strong at home.
What stood out to me most is that the ESPN FPI — which usually leans in Texas’ favor — has given the Longhorns a 57% chance to beat A&M over the past 10 days. That’s something most OBers might expect, but based on how September and early October unfolded, I didn’t see it coming.
Give me 3–0 for the good guys — and a return trip to Atlanta against… Alabama.
Prediction: 3–0
Geoff Ketchum
This season could go a number of directions, but the most likely scenario has the Longhorns losing in Athens to one of the few teams in the country with a raw talent edge, then closing the regular season with back-to-back rivalry wins. The key question: Does Arch Manning and this offense keep growing and evolving?
If so, there’s a chance Texas sneaks into the playoffs if a few things break its way. Regardless, this season needs to end with Manning continuing the surge we’ve seen since the Florida game — minus that one-game detour through Lexington hell. If that happens, the year won’t have been a total waste, even if it still feels like a major disappointment.
Prediction: 2–1
Jason Suchomel
I can’t objectively pick Texas to go into Athens and beat Georgia — not after the Bulldogs knocked off the Longhorns twice last year, including once in Austin. Are the Bulldogs beatable? Absolutely. But Texas hasn’t exactly proven to be road warriors this season in true away games.
Arkansas feels like a fairly easy win, mainly because I expect the Razorbacks will have thrown in the towel by then. That said, Texas can’t sleepwalk through it — Arkansas can still score enough to make things interesting.
The Texas A&M game is tougher to predict, but I’m leaning toward the idea that the Longhorns’ backs will be against the wall. They’ll be at home, playing with urgency, and come out like a caged animal to “upset” the Aggies in Austin.
Prediction: 2–1
Alex Dunlap
I’m not ready to predict the exact outcomes of the next three games — this team is evolving week to week and feels like that box of chocolates from Forrest Gump. That said, my gut says Texas splits the Georgia and A&M games. A loss to Georgia feels more likely since, as Kirby Smart likes to say, the Bulldogs are “hard to kill,” and the task will be even tougher in Athens.
It would take a monumental collapse to lose to an Arkansas team with a terrible defense and a lame-duck coaching staff. The A&M game will be one of those toss-the-records-out-the-window affairs, but I give Texas the edge at home.
Hopefully, when T+1 rolls around, Texas is playing for more than just the chance to spoil the Aggies’ season.
Prediction: 2–1
Anwar Richardson
Is it safe to believe again? It seems like every time we think it’s safe to go back in the water, all our hopes and dreams get attacked — and we end up swimming back to the safe shore of zero expectations. I want to believe Texas will run the table, reach the SEC Championship Game, make the playoff, and we’ll all laugh about the overreactions after those close wins over Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt.
But Texas has struggled on the road this season, and I’m not convinced that changes against Georgia. I don’t think Georgia is unbeatable — but I felt the same way about Florida. I think Texas rebounds with wins over Arkansas and Texas A&M to close the regular season.
Will that be enough for a playoff berth? It’ll be close. Still, Texas could run the table.
Prediction: 2–1
“I know our conference is tough. It really is, man, and it feels like a playoff game every week,” Sarkisian said Monday after the win against Vanderbilt. “I don’t know if it feels that way in all the other conferences, but I just know in our league, it surely does.
“With it being an 11 a.m. kick Saturday, I got a chance to watch Florida–Georgia. I got a chance to watch Ole Miss–South Carolina. I got a chance to watch Oklahoma–Tennessee. That’s some high-level football from teams that maybe don’t have great records, but, man, those teams are good. I knew it was going to be that way.
“I don’t know what’s going to happen with the CFP and who gets in and who doesn’t, and how they really look at this thing. I just know in our league, it’s really hard. It’s really hard. And it’s a credit to the people who find a way to win every Saturday.
“We’re just trying to win the next one and see what happens. As I said before, we’ve been in this situation before — unfortunately, but fortunately — where we’ve had to play this way. I’ve always been a believer in handling your business, controlling what you can control, and trying to take it out of the hands of others.
“We learned that lesson our second-to-last year in the Big 12. I think we beat Baylor here, and we needed Kansas to beat Kansas State to get into the Big 12 Championship Game, and they didn’t. But we could have controlled some of that on our own earlier.
“We’ve handled our business better the last two years in terms of what that looks like. So, for us, what can we control? How the committee handles it — I don’t know. But I know we’ve got Georgia here in two weeks, and it’s going to be a tough game. That’s where our focus is right now.
“What the committee does with the teams in our conference, we’ll see. But I know our conference is really deep. It’s really good — probably deserving of more than three teams. I know the SEC only got three teams in last year, which is kind of laughable, quite frankly. But we’ll see what happens this year.”
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