Members of Orangebloods, you still have time. Take the blue pill and wake up tomorrow in total high school football recruiting bliss.
All 5 stars will hit. All 4 stars will matter. It will not be a pseudoscience.
But, you need to decide right now whether you want to read what I’m about to put in front of you. It cannot be unseen.
You take the red pill… and.. well..
We’ll be in this together forever until we drive a car off the cliff… Thelma and Louise style.
Decision Time – Choose Your Pill
If you’re still reading, you’ve taken the red pill. And away we go..
The discussion we’re about to have originated in my head last week when Georgia offensive lineman Jamal Meriweather transferred to Miami. He’s a former 3-star prospect, who Georgia has slowly developed over the last last 3 years and right about the time he might finally be ready to be a starter… he leaves.
lol.
I started wondering what I would even tell Steve Sarkisian, Brandon Harris and Kyle Flood when it comes to advising them on how to proceed with the continued offensive line development in the program, which has been a much-discussed problem for the last couple of seasons. Their instincts will tell them to take every national top 100, 250 and 500 type prospect they can get their hands on. You don’t go into recruiting each year not wanting to sign the best possible prospects you can get your hands on.
But, at what point is it hustling backwards? How much investment, both financially and with regards to sweat equity, does Sarkisian put into “nationally elite” offensive line prospects if they aren’t even 50-50 bets to make it to year three? Is that even a real number? How close to real is it?
Here’s what I did… I charted every national Top 300 offensive lineman from the state of Texas from 2019-2023 and asked the following questions:
* Did they make a first-year major impact?
* Did they make a second-year major impact?
* Did they make a third-year major impact?
* Did they ever emerge as a major impact starter with the school they signed with?
* Did they ever transfer?
* Did they ever emerge as a major impact starter after they transferred?
(Note: I defined a major impact as starting 6+ games in any season)
Overall, the sample size of offensive linemen in the 5-year window from 2019-2023 who were Rivals Industry Top 300 prospects was 37.
Ok, buckle up.
First-Year Major Impacts
0.8% (4 of 37)
Dude, it’s pretty grim. We’re talking 4 guys… 5-star Kenyon Green, 5-star Donovan Jackson, 5-star Kelvin Banks and super blue chip Bryce Foster.
That’s the list.
Moving forward, understand the ask being made when anyone ever casually suggests any ol’ true freshman can make a major first year impact.
Second-Year Major Impacts
21.6% (8 of 27)
Five more players from the pool of 37 joined our 5-star freaks in starting more than 6+ games in their second seasons, while one (Foster) dropped out due to injury. Two of the 5 (Stanford’s Branson Bragg and Texas A&M’s Reuben Fatheree) started as second-year players, but finished their careers as back-ups, which only leaves us 3 additional players (8.1%) who were able to make second-year impacts and build off of that success throughout the rest of their careers.
Those 3 players? Are you sitting down?
Jake Majors, Hayden Conner and D.J. Campbell.
Two things about the data…
a. None of those players could be described as plus-players in their second seasons, which means that only those three 5-star freaks were plus-players as starters in year 2.
b. 4 of the 6 players that have made first- or second-year impacts are Kyle Flood protégés.
Third-Year Major Impacts
27.0% (10 of 37)
I’m kind of at a loss for words. Even if you manage to keep these kids in the program for 3 seasons before they enter the transfer Portal, you’re still not going to emerge with an impact-level starter 73% of the time.
That doesn’t mean they’ll be great players. That just means 27% of the time in the last 5 years a player with 3 years of experience can be counted on to start roughly start half of the games on the schedule. You can scroll down to see the full list of names that join our impact starting group, but Cam Williams is the best of the bunch.
Another Kyle Flood protégé.
Transfers
56.8% (21 of 37) and climbing.
It’s real simple. Any player Texas brings is almost certainly twice as likely to transfer as he is to emerge as a functional major-impact level player.
Eventual Starters
40.5% (15 of 37) and climbing.
The numbers grow, but only by adding players that found success (typically at lower levels) after transferring away from their original schools. Not a single player in the year 5 sample size made a 4th or 5th year major impact at their original school after failing to do so in their first 3 years.
Call it the Neto Umeozulu rule, if you will.
It’s not statistically impossible for these guys to survive 3 years in the program, only to emerge as valuable players in years 3 or 4, but the general rule of thumb if that if they’ll bite, they’ll bite as pups and young dogs. Old dogs typically don’t learn this particular new tricks.
Initial Big Takeaway
I don’t know why Steve Sarkisian would ever go out of your way to purposefully recruit offensive linemen out of high school unless they are 5 star prospects.
Everything else is pure crossing your fingers and hoping your number lands on the roulette wheel.
Hope is not a national championship-winning strategy. Moving forward…
a. Stop recruiting high school offensive linemen unless they are National Top 20 level prospects.
b. Let all of the other schools take the risks and invest the sweat equity of developing these high-risk gambles
c. Shop exclusively in the Portal and spend big there every year.
I know that will sound drastic. I get it. But, the data is drastic. It is not subjective, It’s quite emphatic.
Like I said… all of this can’t be unseen.
