Red River Rivalry Preview – No 2 Texas vs. No 8 Oklahoma

Red River Rivalry is here. No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners

For the second week in a row, the Horns find themselves in a familiar spot. They are coming off a Tuesday night loss and facing a Top 10 ranked SEC opponent. There are two sizable differences this week though as the Horns are at-home, a place that they have played very well at and the foe is a familiar one as the Oklahoma Sooners travel South to Austin.

The Longhorns are coming off of a Top 5 series road win against Auburn, while the Sooner are coming off of a road series win against the defending national champions, LSU Tigers.

Despite the series win by both clubs, questions still remain. Was the game against LSU just a blip for Cam Johnson or is he reverting back to the mean, which would be bad news for a Sooner rotation and bullpen. For Texas, the bullpen question continues to loom, given their back-to-back Friday night losses and struggles again on Tuesday night. The Horns also have not lit the world on fire offensively lately, and Texas needs Mendoza, Robbins, Tinney, and Becerra to lead the top of the lineup.

A big series with high stakes as both Texas and Oklahoma come in tied for first with a 4-2 record. There is a lot on the line for both clubs that feature premier arms and offenses that thrive on taking advantage of opposing teams mistakes as they look to keep pace at the top of the SEC and position themselves for a national ranking come post season play.

Series Matchup

#8 Oklahoma Sooners vs. #2 Texas Longhorns
Date: March 26-28
Where: Disch-Falk Field (Austin, TX)
Time: 7pm, 7pm, 4pm
TV: SEC Network

Series History:

• The Horns lead the series 160-70-2
• The Horns are 107-42-2 at home against Oklahoma
• First Met: May 1910
• Last Met: 2025 – Horns beat the Sooners in Norman in the last SEC series of the season. They won game one, lost game two, and then won comfortably in game three

Records

Oklahoma: 19-5 (4-2 SEC)
Texas: 20-4 (4-2 SEC)

Oklahoma RPI / SOS: 21 / 65
Texas RPI / SOS: 2 / 4

SEC Stats Rankings

Season to Date:

vs. Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU (3-0)
vs. New Mexico State (1-0)
vs. Coppin State (3-0)
vs. Arizona State (1-1)
vs. Gonzaga (2-1)
vs. Dallas Baptist (1-0)
vs. Santa Clara (3-0)
vs. UT Arlington (1-0)
vs. Texas A&M (2-1)
at Southeastern Louisiana (0-1)
at LSU (2-1)

Keys to the Series

Can Oklahoma’s rotation silence Texas’s offense at home?

This is the central question of the entire series. Texas’s lineup has outscored opponents 212–78 this season, ranks 18th nationally in OPS at .966, and has run-ruled opponents on six occasions. Aiden Robbins — the Seton Hall transfer — is slashing .375/.719 slugging percentage with 9 home runs. Carson Tinney, the Notre Dame transfer and 2025 Buster Posey Award finalist, adds elite exit velocity behind the dish. Against this, the OU rotation (Johnson, Mercurius, Rager) has combined for 248 strikeouts against 96 walks this season. Mercurius’s and Johnson’s ability to generate weak contact and miss bats will be the determining factor. If they can replicate their early season efforts against a deeper Texas lineup, OU steals the series.

Cameron Johnson’s command — can he tame the Disch-Falk crowd?

Game 1 is the hinge of the series, and it turns on whether Johnson can locate his fastball in a hostile environment. At LSU’s Alex Box, he surrendered 5 runs in 1.1 innings on 6 walks — a command meltdown that his team could not overcome. In addition, against Texas A&M, he went just 2.1 innings and issued 7 walks against 2 strikeouts. The Longhorns are 20–4, and Riojas will be looking to continue his fantastic form this season. Johnson is 3-1 on the season with 7+ strikeouts in every start prior to SEC play. The 2026 Red River Rivalry may hinge on whether he can throw strikes early and set a tone.

Oklahoma’s lineup depth and comeback DNA vs. Texas’s bullpen

Nine of Oklahoma’s nineteen wins have come via comeback. The Sooners rallied three runs in the eighth inning to beat LSU in the series clincher after being down 3–1. They carry a lineup with five starters batting over .300 — Jaxon Willits (.319, 23 RBI), Camden Johnson (.325, 18 SB), Trey Gambill (.361, 4 HR), Deiten Lachance (.316, 22 RBI), and JUCO slugger Brendan Brock (6 HR) providing middle-of-the-order punch. Texas has had to rely upon freshman arms like Sam Cozart and Brett Crossland as veteran relievers such as Cal Higgins and Thomas Burns have struggled mightily. OU’s ability to stay patient, take walks, and work the bullpen late could be the difference in close games.

SEC standings implications and the home field factor

Both teams sit at 4–2 in the SEC — tied in the standings heading into this series. A Texas series win would put the Longhorns at 6–3, a game ahead of OU (5–4) with momentum heading into an away trip to South Carolina. An Oklahoma series win would further vault the Sooners up the Top 25 rankings and announce themselves as a legitimate conference championship contender in just their second SEC season. Texas has been nearly untouchable at Disch-Falk (home record: 14–2 this season); OU is 2–2 on the road. The home field advantage was real last season in SEC play for Texas. Can the Horns continue that run in 2026?

Notes on the Oklahoma:

• Oklahoma was picked to finish 14^th out of 16 teams in the SEC
• Oklahoma is 2-2 on the road
• 2025 Record: 38-22 (14-16 SEC)

Projected Pitching Matchups:

Oklahoma LHP Cameron Johnson (6 starts, 3-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 25 IP, 18 BB, 36 K) vs. Texas RHP Ruger Riojas (6 starts, 4-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 32.2 IP, 5 BB, 56 K)

Scouting Report: The most physically imposing arm in the Oklahoma rotation. Johnson stands 6-foot-6 and operates from a low, three-quarter slot that creates a downward plane and difficult angle for right-handed hitters in particular. His sinker is a genuine plus pitch, sitting 94–95 and touching 97 with heavy armside run and above-average extension. His sinker generates a high groundball rate, and when he’s pounding the zone it’s an easy plus offering. The knock has always been command. Texas hitters will look to run up pitch counts early, take the outside sinker, and force him to throw his nascent secondaries for strikes. If the fastball command wavers early at a loud Disch-Falk, he can unravel quickly.

Texas Hitter Key: Work the count early. Johnson relies on the sinker 85–90% of the time — patient at-bats that force him into secondary offerings put him in unfamiliar territory. Left-handed hitters should look middle-in; right-handers stay off the arm-side sinker away. Drive the pitch count into the 3rd–4th inning.

Oklahoma RHP LJ Mercurius (6 starts, 5-1, 1.87 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 33.2 IP, 10 BB, 48 K) vs. Texas LHP Luke Harrison (6 starts, 3-0, 2.37 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 30.1 IP, 12 BB, 31 K)

Scouting Report: The best pitcher in the Oklahoma rotation and one of the premier arms in all of college baseball in 2026. Mercurius is the X-factor for the entire series. His fastball sits 95 mph and touches 98, generating 20-plus inches of induced vertical break — a ride profile that elevates the pitch above barrel paths at the top of the zone. He commands the pitch east-to-west with uncommon precision for a college arm at this velocity level. His changeup is a legitimate out pitch. The velocity separation off his fastball combined with heavy fade makes it nearly unhittable to left-handed batters when located down and away. He also works a low-80s cutter with tight action as his primary offering to right-handed hitters.

Texas Hitter Key: Left-handed hitters must have a plan for the changeup — it will come. Look for it early in counts when he’s establishing the fastball. Right-handed hitters: respect the cutter in and hunt the fastball up in the zone. His command is good enough that “taking” pitches works against you — be aggressive when the fastball is in the zone early.

Oklahoma LHP Cord Rager (6 starts, 2-1, 4.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 25.1 IP, 11 BB, 32 K) vs. Texas LHP Dylan Volantis (6 starts, 3-0, 1.35 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 33.1 IP, 12 BB, 44 K)

Scouting Report: Rager was Oklahoma’s most surprising preseason decision: he arrived as the No. 1 first baseman in Texas and the No. 10 first baseman nationally in the 2025 class by Perfect Game, not a highly-recruited pitcher. Skip Johnson was simply set at first base and gave the 6-foot-6 southpaw the ball — and Rager delivered. He struck out the side in order in his very first collegiate inning against TCU in the Shriners Showdown, ultimately going 5 innings with 8 Ks and 1 ER. That debut earned him SEC Co-Freshman of the Week honors alongside Dylan Volantis of Texas. His physical profile is what makes scouts pay attention. At 6-foot-6 from the left side, his release point creates a steep downhill angle.

Texas Hitter Key: Patience is key. Rager’s walk rate (7 in 21 IP) is manageable but his stuff is real. Right-handed hitters should look to exploit his command early by working deep counts and forcing him to come to the zone. If the walk rate ticks up, the OU bullpen (4 saves for Cleveland) becomes a factor in a close game. Don’t sit dead red early — he can strike hitters out looking.

Bullpen

• Reid Hensley (0-0, 6 apps, 1.04 ERA, 8.2 IP)
• Kadyn Leon (1-0, 10 apps, 1.35 ERA, 13.1 IP)
• Isaac Williams (1-0, 6 apps, 1.35 ERA, 6.2 IP)
• Trent Collier (0-0, 6 apps, 2.35 ERA, 7.2 IP)
• Xander Mercurius (0-0, 6 apps, 2.61 ERA, 10.1 IP)
• Mason Bixby (1-0, 6 apps, 2.70 ERA, 6.2 IP)
• Jason Bodin (3-0, 8 apps, 3.07 ERA, 14.2 IP)
• Jackson Cleveland (2-0, 4 saves, 10 apps, 3.68 ERA, 14.2 IP)

Offensive Leaders

• Trey Gambill (.361 BA, 1.167 OPS, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 21 BB, 14K)
• Camden Johnson (.325 BA, .982 OPS, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 16 BB, 24K)
• Jaxon Willits (.319 BA, .978 OPS, 2 HR, 23 RBI, 17 BB, 16K)
• Deiten LaChance (.316 BA, .873 OPS, 22 RBI, 17 BB, 15K)
• Brendan Brock (.291 BA, .985 OPS, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 14 BB, 29K)

Weekend Pick Em

Overall: 35-12 (9-7 SEC)

Stats Breakdown